The United States of America calls for action: Serbia as the main hub of Moscow’s and Beijing’s hybrid operations in the Balkans

The report mandated by the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act seeks to identify the networks, entities, and individuals that support these influence activities

An examination of political and security developments in the Western Balkans over the past decade reveals a discernible pattern. A common thread connects these developments: the increasingly deep and aggressive presence of Russia and China in the region. This phenomenon is no longer an abstract geopolitical concern, rather, it has tangible effects on the functioning of institutions, government communication with the public, the administration of elections, and broader perceptions of the international order. The United States Congress has expressed concern that Russia and China are employing influence operations in the Western Balkans to undermine fragile democratic systems and jeopardize the interests of the United States and its NATO allies.

This reporting mandate is not merely a bureaucratic exercise. It represents a response to mounting evidence that Russia, engaged in open aggression against Ukraine and experiencing difficulties with its traditional channels of influence in Europe, has redirected its strategic attention toward countries with weaker institutional resistance. China, by contrast, employs different methods to pursue its objectives, relying on economic leverage, investment strategies, technological control, and long-term diplomacy. For the United States, these two approaches constitute a dual threat to the Euro-Atlantic orientation of the Western Balkans.

The vulnerability of the region results from a combination of three factors: incomplete or politically instrumentalized democratic institutions, pronounced social divisions, and the ease with which nationalist narratives can be mobilized for political gain. It is precisely in these areas that influence operations gain access, exploiting institutional weaknesses to advance Moscow’s and Beijing’s strategic agendas.

Russian activity in the Balkans isn’t just a coincidence, it is aimed at weakening democratic processes. These efforts include election interference, information manipulation, and the financing of networks and structures linked to the Kremlin. Such structures operate to obstruct the effective functioning of the rule of law. Russia has developed a form of hybrid warfare that relies on coordinated action among intelligence services, diplomatic channels, state-controlled media, oligarchic networks, and cultural or religious organizations. The objective is to undermine electoral integrity, exacerbate political tensions, and foster the perception that democratic institutions are corrupt, dysfunctional, or incapable of effective governance.

Russia has a clear strategic interest in targeting Kosova, as undermining its statehood would weaken both NATO and the European Union. In Serbia, however, these activities are more closely connected to state institutions and certain religious groups. This relationship persists because the Serbian state has maintained close ties with Moscow through political leadership and affiliated religious structures. As a result, Serbia functions as an ideological ally and a primary conduit for the projection of Russian influence throughout the Balkans.

These operations extend beyond propaganda and disinformation. They include the systematic devaluation of institutions, the discrediting of pro-Western political actors, the support of forces that generate social polarization, and the creation of informal networks through which decision-making processes are quietly captured. Russia also employs groups that provoke political instability, organize protests, and intimidate investigative journalists. In certain circumstances, it further relies on groups that engage in direct attacks on state institutions.

Chinese influence is also present in the region, though it operates in a markedly different manner. Unlike Russia, China does not seek to generate immediate political disruption. Instead, it pursues long-term dependency through investments in economic and technological sectors. Projects characterized by unconditional investment frequently result in opaque agreements and increasing control over key economic decision-making centers. In states with weak institutional oversight, this approach poses risks comparable to those associated with Russian manipulation operations.

The report mandated by the U.S. National Defense Authorization Act seeks to identify the networks, entities, and individuals that support these influence activities. Its objective is not limited to assessing outcomes, but also includes examining the internal structures that enable harmful foreign influence. These structures often involve local actors who benefit politically or financially from destabilizing projects. In other cases, influence is exerted through media outlets controlled by specific interest groups, shell companies, or cultural and academic organizations that function as instruments of external power.

The report also seeks to identify the operational tactics employed by Russia and China in the Balkans. These tactics commonly include the dissemination of disinformation through social media, the promotion of narratives hostile to NATO and the European Union, the financing of organizations that undermine public trust in institutions, the manipulation of electoral processes, and intelligence-linked hybrid operations targeting critical infrastructure.

Another key component of the assessment involves evaluating how past influence operations in other countries have affected U.S. alliances in the Balkans. Even when such operations have not produced significant political change, they have contributed to delays in democratic transition, diminished public trust in institutions, and the emergence of political environments in which regional states appear less committed to Euro-Atlantic integration. In some instances, foreign influence has generated immediate consequences, including legislative paralysis, contested elections, governmental crises, and heightened border tensions aligned with Moscow’s geopolitical objectives.

The assessment further addresses the capacities of NATO and individual Balkan states to defend against these threats. Considerable variation exists across the region. Some states have invested substantially in cybersecurity and mechanisms designed to counter foreign influence. Others, particularly those with closer ties to Moscow or extensive Chinese investment, exhibit weaker institutional resilience and heightened susceptibility to political pressure.

Through dedicated funding aimed at countering Russian and Chinese influence, the United States is working to strengthen defensive capacities in the region. These efforts extend beyond economic support or technical assistance and seek to establish a shared regional framework in which institutions exchange information, analyze hybrid threats, reinforce independent media, and enhance public awareness of external influence operations.

Another important part of the report is an assessment of tactics likely to be employed in the future. Russian strategies in the Balkans evolve in response to effectiveness, often shifting toward covert operations targeting critical infrastructure and security institutions. China is expected to continue leveraging technological capabilities and financial resources to generate dependencies, particularly in the digital, energy, and infrastructure sectors.

Finally, the United States is developing a strategy to expand its defensive engagement in the region. This includes increasing assistance to Balkan countries, strengthening information security practices, and fostering conditions in which harmful foreign influence cannot easily take hold.

The Western Balkans remain strategically significant for European security and the transatlantic alliance. Any effort to undermine peace, democracy, or the integration of these states into Euro-Atlantic structures will have consequences extending beyond the region itself. At a time when the international order is under increasing strain, the Balkans must not become a testing ground for hybrid operations aimed at diminishing Western influence.

Ultimately, through this legal mandate, the United States sends a clear message to the region: the Western Balkans are a strategic priority, not merely a peripheral political concern. The responsibility now lies with Balkan countries to develop the institutional capacity, expertise, and political resolve necessary to confront emerging threats. Those threats increasingly take the form not of conventional weapons, but of narratives, manufactured crises, economic dependencies, and covert operations designed to undermine democratic governance. /The Balkan Report/